The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order

Stubb, the president of Finland, claims that the international system has reached a crossroads. The next global order will follow either the logic of Yalta (a reference to the 1945 summit) or the logic of Helsinki (a reference to the 1975 summit); that is, we will have either a multipolar world divided into spheres of influence or a more open and cooperative multilateral world. The outcome will be determined by the interplay of three global coalitions: the “Global West,” led by the United States, Europe, and Japan; the “Global East,” led by China and Russia; and the “Global South,” led by countries such as India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. Stubb argues that the West, despite the momentary disruption of U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateralism, remains committed to some sort of reformed and updated multilateral system, while the East tilts in the direction of multipolar blocs. In this contest of orders, the South will cast the decisive vote. Drawing on Finland’s Cold War–era tradition of “pragmatic realism,” Stubb calls on Western leaders to work with both the East and the South to rebuild a global system of rules-based cooperation centered on the United Nations.