Perfect Storm: Russia’s Failed Economic Opening, the Hurricane of War and Sanctions, and the Uncertain Future

In this illuminating book, Gustafson, a preeminent political scientist and longtime Russia observer, traces Russia’s opening to the West after the Soviet collapse and its subsequent reclosing, a process that began in the mid-2010s and was sharply accelerated by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and ensuing Western sanctions. As Gustafson points out, the opening was flawed from the start, in part because of the dominance of large state-owned companies, as well as economic imbalances between major urban centers and the provinces. The mutual resentment that Westernizing reforms produced has only deepened with the West’s imposition of sanctions, whose efficacy Gustafson questions. The unprecedented scope of the sanctions regime, and the contradictory policy priorities of the states involved, make it complex, inconsistent, and unpredictable. Gustafson gives credit to the competence of Russia’s financial team and the Russians’ resourcefulness in outmaneuvering the sanctions through “gray imports” (Western goods that made their way to Russia via friendly countries) and “shadow fleets” of oil tankers. But he insists that if sanctions are sustained and vigorously enforced, they will have a long-term debilitating effect on the Russian economy.