The Geriatric Peace: Population Aging and the Decline of War

Haas’s description of demographic trends can make for a sobering read. Largely thanks to shrinking fertility, by the 2060s people 65 and older will outnumber those 15 and younger. Economies around the world will slow, and welfare systems will come under great strain. But Haas, a political scientist, draws one major positive conclusion. As populations age, he argues, states will become less capable of waging war. After all, there will be fewer resources available to spend on wars and fewer people to fight them. Haas believes that these limitations could constrain conflict between China and the United States, especially given the former’s dramatic demographic challenges: estimates suggest that between 2015 and 2065, China’s working-age population will shrink from 998 million to 412 million. Haas is careful to point out that he is making no more than a “probabilistic” argument. He also acknowledges that Russia complicates his predictions, given that its severe demographic crisis was not enough to dissuade President Vladimir Putin from attacking Ukraine (although that crisis has made it harder for the Russian military to fight). The Russian case illustrates the problem with his argument. Haas demonstrates why demographic factors might dampen pressures to go to war, but, unfortunately, not that they will be overriding.